Risks that could undermine the good prognosis
Memories of the growth of China Bank of Japan postpones QE bazooka Reducing drop back reconstruction in the U.S. labor market has a lot of speed Davos: Central bankers are happy negative interest rates is nothing new
For several years, the macroeconomic situation of the world largely depends on the decisions of politicians and central banks. Even the best forecasting models fail, however, when there are disasters, habasit canada violent political change, the discovery of new deposits. Analysis: "Top 10 for 2014-risk" shows the 10 situations that may, but need not happen and their impact on the global economy.
Analysis of HSBC was published on December 10 and December 18 the Fed announced that from January habasit canada restricts purchases of bonds of 85 billion dollars. month to 75 billion dollars. Today, the markets are convinced that within 2014 years can be taken further decisions to reduce purchases. The authors of the analysis predicted that in such a situation habasit canada repeated scenario of mid-2013, when Ben Bernanke first mentioned the planned operation limit purchases, habasit canada which was defined as tapering, which is narrowing: occurs sale of bonds and equities, interest rates will increase debt. Then the valuation of bonds will start to grow again, and their profitability to decline, as the signals will arrive with weak economic growth.
The first week of information about limiting purchases only partially confirmed the fears. Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 2.84 per cent. (Dec. 17) to 3.03 percent. (31 December). Profitability exceeded the psychological limit of 3 per cent., Reaching its highest level since 2011. Shares while prices increased. The S & P 500 from December 18 to December 31 rose by 3.8 percent.
Managing Director of the fund Pimco, which specializes in the bond market Mohamed El-Erian said that the Fed has won the first battle, but did not win the war. And Stephen King on the blog in the Financial Times explained moderate reaction of the markets change the way we communicate Fed with the market. The Federal Reserve announcing limiting the purchase of bonds at the same time stated that interest rates will be maintained habasit canada at current levels close to zero for a long time, even if the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent.
As a result, interest rates will be at the end of 2015 and 2016, 0.25 percentage point lower than previously predicted the Fed. King doubts that in the long run, the new strategy the Fed - rather than buying bonds, determining a longer period of its intention regarding interest rates - has been effective. habasit canada So monetary policy by major central banks and its effects on the growth and stability habasit canada of the world economy in 2014 remains a risk.
It is too early to prejudge what will be the reaction of financial markets to change the Fed's monetary policy, habasit canada especially that in January as President habasit canada of the U.S. central bank will take Janet Yellen, having the opinion of the Monetary pigeon. Just before Christmas there were reports that the vice-president of the U.S. Federal Reserve will be Stanley Fischer, former Governor of the Central Bank of Israel, and former vice president habasit canada of the IMF. This information habasit canada has not yet been taken into account in the development of HSBC. Influence Fischer on monetary policy habasit canada the Fed may be greater than would appear habasit canada from the position of the person No. 2 because of his experience, achievements, and a career in research (dissertation supervisor was Ben Bernanke and Greg Mankiw - advisor to President habasit canada George W. Bush).
Fischer expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of the strategy 'guidance' (forward guidance), followed by the Fed, along with information habasit canada on the reduction of bond purchases. habasit canada He spoke also critical of the policy of quantitative easing (QE), taking care, however, that it is a necessary instrument in the situation in which there were some highly developed economy.
The authors of the HSBC note that the final impact of QE policies are difficult to predict. So far not proven to be concern that an increase in the balance sheets of central banks will automatically lead to inflation, but that does not mean that the policy of QE will not lead to inflation in the future. This will happen then, if commercial banks stop buying Treasury bonds and begin to extend credit. This may be due to regulatory changes that will force banks to decrease involvement in government securities. A new phenomenon in many developed habasit canada countries, mainly in the USA, is to withdraw a large amount of workers from the labor market. For various reasons, not looking for work. If this phenomenon proves to be structural (employees do not take the job and will not even look for her at improving the economic situation) may accelerate inflation.
According to economists HSBC rise in inflation would increase habasit canada the prices of tangible assets - metals, real estate and gold. Rise as stocks in emerging markets and government bond yields in countries where inflationary pressures would arise.
By 2008 the engine of economic growth ch
Memories of the growth of China Bank of Japan postpones QE bazooka Reducing drop back reconstruction in the U.S. labor market has a lot of speed Davos: Central bankers are happy negative interest rates is nothing new
For several years, the macroeconomic situation of the world largely depends on the decisions of politicians and central banks. Even the best forecasting models fail, however, when there are disasters, habasit canada violent political change, the discovery of new deposits. Analysis: "Top 10 for 2014-risk" shows the 10 situations that may, but need not happen and their impact on the global economy.
Analysis of HSBC was published on December 10 and December 18 the Fed announced that from January habasit canada restricts purchases of bonds of 85 billion dollars. month to 75 billion dollars. Today, the markets are convinced that within 2014 years can be taken further decisions to reduce purchases. The authors of the analysis predicted that in such a situation habasit canada repeated scenario of mid-2013, when Ben Bernanke first mentioned the planned operation limit purchases, habasit canada which was defined as tapering, which is narrowing: occurs sale of bonds and equities, interest rates will increase debt. Then the valuation of bonds will start to grow again, and their profitability to decline, as the signals will arrive with weak economic growth.
The first week of information about limiting purchases only partially confirmed the fears. Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 2.84 per cent. (Dec. 17) to 3.03 percent. (31 December). Profitability exceeded the psychological limit of 3 per cent., Reaching its highest level since 2011. Shares while prices increased. The S & P 500 from December 18 to December 31 rose by 3.8 percent.
Managing Director of the fund Pimco, which specializes in the bond market Mohamed El-Erian said that the Fed has won the first battle, but did not win the war. And Stephen King on the blog in the Financial Times explained moderate reaction of the markets change the way we communicate Fed with the market. The Federal Reserve announcing limiting the purchase of bonds at the same time stated that interest rates will be maintained habasit canada at current levels close to zero for a long time, even if the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent.
As a result, interest rates will be at the end of 2015 and 2016, 0.25 percentage point lower than previously predicted the Fed. King doubts that in the long run, the new strategy the Fed - rather than buying bonds, determining a longer period of its intention regarding interest rates - has been effective. habasit canada So monetary policy by major central banks and its effects on the growth and stability habasit canada of the world economy in 2014 remains a risk.
It is too early to prejudge what will be the reaction of financial markets to change the Fed's monetary policy, habasit canada especially that in January as President habasit canada of the U.S. central bank will take Janet Yellen, having the opinion of the Monetary pigeon. Just before Christmas there were reports that the vice-president of the U.S. Federal Reserve will be Stanley Fischer, former Governor of the Central Bank of Israel, and former vice president habasit canada of the IMF. This information habasit canada has not yet been taken into account in the development of HSBC. Influence Fischer on monetary policy habasit canada the Fed may be greater than would appear habasit canada from the position of the person No. 2 because of his experience, achievements, and a career in research (dissertation supervisor was Ben Bernanke and Greg Mankiw - advisor to President habasit canada George W. Bush).
Fischer expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of the strategy 'guidance' (forward guidance), followed by the Fed, along with information habasit canada on the reduction of bond purchases. habasit canada He spoke also critical of the policy of quantitative easing (QE), taking care, however, that it is a necessary instrument in the situation in which there were some highly developed economy.
The authors of the HSBC note that the final impact of QE policies are difficult to predict. So far not proven to be concern that an increase in the balance sheets of central banks will automatically lead to inflation, but that does not mean that the policy of QE will not lead to inflation in the future. This will happen then, if commercial banks stop buying Treasury bonds and begin to extend credit. This may be due to regulatory changes that will force banks to decrease involvement in government securities. A new phenomenon in many developed habasit canada countries, mainly in the USA, is to withdraw a large amount of workers from the labor market. For various reasons, not looking for work. If this phenomenon proves to be structural (employees do not take the job and will not even look for her at improving the economic situation) may accelerate inflation.
According to economists HSBC rise in inflation would increase habasit canada the prices of tangible assets - metals, real estate and gold. Rise as stocks in emerging markets and government bond yields in countries where inflationary pressures would arise.
By 2008 the engine of economic growth ch
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